Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ANTA Sports Products Limited (2020.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$676.49 - $1,924.48$1,803.52
Multi-Stage$267.59 - $292.79$279.96
Blended Fair Value$1,041.74
Current Price$86.20
Upside1,108.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.80%18.94%2.091.381.290.830.480.490.830.670.530.46
YoY Growth--50.97%7.20%55.62%71.72%-0.85%-41.61%25.21%25.69%15.54%24.44%
Dividend Yield--2.86%2.08%1.43%0.87%0.47%0.78%2.53%2.27%2.56%2.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,115.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,285.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)16,830.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,623.003,514.382,108.63
Cash Retained (M)16,830.0016,830.0016,830.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,623.00-3,514.38-2,108.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,207.0013,315.6314,721.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,905.402,905.402,905.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.864.585.07
LTM Dividend per Share3.883.883.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.864.585.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.748.478.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$676.49$1,803.52$1,924.48
Upside / Downside684.79%1,992.25%2,132.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,115.0029,942.4831,888.7433,961.5036,169.0038,519.9939,675.59
Payout Ratio40.14%50.11%60.08%70.06%80.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,285.0015,004.4719,159.7823,791.9028,945.2434,667.9936,699.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,929.3014,061.3314,193.36
Year 2 PV (M)16,512.3216,826.8317,144.31
Year 3 PV (M)19,035.1119,581.5420,138.32
Year 4 PV (M)21,498.7022,325.4723,175.87
Year 5 PV (M)23,904.1025,058.6826,257.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)682,577.66715,546.41749,776.96
Equity Value (M)777,457.18813,400.26850,686.28
Shares Outstanding (M)2,905.402,905.402,905.40
Fair Value$267.59$279.96$292.79
Upside / Downside210.43%224.78%239.67%

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