Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhongmiao (1471.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.74 - $4.00$3.35
Multi-Stage$4.77 - $5.24$5.00
Blended Fair Value$4.17
Current Price$13.83
Upside-69.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.036.273.76
Cash Retained (M)31.1531.1531.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.03-6.27-3.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.1224.8827.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.76137.76137.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.74$3.35$4.00
Upside / Downside-80.20%-75.80%-71.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50.1349.6349.1348.6448.1647.6849.11
Payout Ratio37.87%48.29%58.72%69.15%79.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.9823.9728.8533.6438.3242.9145.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21.8822.1122.33
Year 2 PV (M)24.0524.5525.04
Year 3 PV (M)25.6026.3927.20
Year 4 PV (M)26.6327.7328.87
Year 5 PV (M)27.2228.6430.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)531.81559.50588.33
Equity Value (M)657.20688.92721.90
Shares Outstanding (M)137.76137.76137.76
Fair Value$4.77$5.00$5.24
Upside / Downside-65.51%-63.84%-62.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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