Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $15.92 - $24.98 | $20.08 |
| Multi-Stage | $22.12 - $24.17 | $23.12 |
| Blended Fair Value | $21.60 | |
| Current Price | $82.03 | |
| Upside | -73.66% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 5.85% | 5.25% | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.08 | 1.01 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.30% | 6.12% | 7.00% | 10.67% | 6.06% | 8.32% | 5.22% | 0.93% | -5.01% | 14.89% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.50% | 3.51% | 3.07% | 2.74% | 2.10% | 4.19% | 2.34% | 2.71% | 2.77% | 3.77% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,366.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 993.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 373.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 273.20 | 170.75 | 102.45 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 373.00 | 373.00 | 373.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -273.20 | -170.75 | -102.45 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 99.80 | 202.25 | 270.55 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 861.50 | 861.50 | 861.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.27 | 1.39 | 1.47 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.05% | 2.05% | 3.05% |
| Fair Value | $15.92 | $20.08 | $24.98 |
| Upside / Downside | -80.59% | -75.52% | -69.54% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,366.00 | 1,393.99 | 1,422.54 | 1,451.69 | 1,481.43 | 1,511.78 | 1,557.13 |
| Payout Ratio | 72.69% | 76.16% | 79.62% | 83.08% | 86.54% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 993.00 | 1,061.59 | 1,132.58 | 1,206.03 | 1,282.01 | 1,360.60 | 1,440.35 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.05% | 2.05% | 3.05% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 963.53 | 973.06 | 982.60 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 933.00 | 951.56 | 970.30 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 901.73 | 928.77 | 956.34 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 870.00 | 904.95 | 940.95 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 838.04 | 880.33 | 924.32 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 14,548.28 | 15,282.54 | 16,046.14 |
| Equity Value (M) | 19,054.57 | 19,921.21 | 20,820.64 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 861.50 | 861.50 | 861.50 |
| Fair Value | $22.12 | $23.12 | $24.17 |
| Upside / Downside | -73.04% | -71.81% | -70.54% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKR | KKR & Co. Inc. | 0.55% | $0.71 | 28.86% |
| UHS | Universal Health Services, Inc. | 0.55% | $1.21 | 5.70% |
| 0I0T.L | Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.81 | 11.41% |
| HSTM | HealthStream, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.12 | 17.69% |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | 0.54% | $5.79 | 28.28% |
| TECH | Bio-Techne Corporation | 0.54% | $0.32 | 64.31% |
| TRU | TransUnion | 0.54% | $0.45 | 21.24% |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | 0.54% | $0.89 | 26.39% |
| 0R2Z.L | Mastercard Incorporated | 0.52% | $2.96 | 18.79% |
| DHR | Danaher Corporation | 0.52% | $1.19 | 24.18% |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | 0.52% | $0.87 | 21.15% |
| 0JT5.L | Lam Research Corporation | 0.51% | $0.93 | 20.32% |
| 0JZ0.L | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 0.51% | $3.22 | 16.93% |
| EVTC | EVERTEC, Inc. | 0.51% | $0.15 | 6.55% |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | 0.51% | $2.01 | 6.83% |
| MUSA | Murphy USA Inc. | 0.51% | $2.05 | 8.36% |
| PCG | Pacific Gas & Electric Co. | 0.51% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CHE | Chemed Corporation | 0.50% | $2.11 | 11.01% |
| FBIO | Fortress Biotech, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.02 | 16.65% |
| HWKN | Hawkins, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.73 | 18.33% |
| NMRK | Newmark Group, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.08 | 20.64% |
| PRLH | Pearl Holdings Acquisition Corp | 0.50% | $0.06 | 54.69% |
| EXP | Eagle Materials Inc. | 0.48% | $1.02 | 7.46% |
| FCAX | Fortress Capital Acquisition Corp. | 0.48% | $0.05 | 6.11% |
| FSS | Federal Signal Corporation | 0.48% | $0.54 | 13.95% |
| AAON | AAON, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.37 | 30.87% |
| CR | Crane Company | 0.47% | $0.88 | 14.07% |
| HGTY | Hagerty, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.06 | 12.93% |
| IDCC | InterDigital, Inc. | 0.47% | $1.55 | 10.87% |
| PCG-PI | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 4.36% | 0.47% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| SEB | Seaboard Corporation | 0.47% | $20.86 | 5.03% |
| AMEH | Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.18 | 93.62% |
| IDT | IDT Corporation | 0.46% | $0.23 | 7.15% |
| KAI | Kadant Inc. | 0.46% | $1.32 | 15.23% |
| PRGS | Progress Software Corporation | 0.46% | $0.19 | 17.10% |
| UI | Ubiquiti Inc. | 0.46% | $2.60 | 19.86% |
| WWE | World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.46 | 21.62% |
| APH | Amphenol Corporation | 0.45% | $0.62 | 20.92% |
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | 0.45% | $0.50 | 7.30% |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.40 | 21.08% |
| PCG-PC | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 5% | 0.45% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.68 | 11.54% |
| REVG | REV Group, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.27 | 14.08% |
| RYAN | Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.22 | 87.54% |
| TRS | TriMas Corporation | 0.44% | $0.16 | 14.97% |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 0.44% | $0.96 | 13.90% |
| WING | Wingstop Inc. | 0.44% | $1.14 | 18.31% |
| TW | Tradeweb Markets Inc. | 0.43% | $0.46 | 15.57% |
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.28 | 13.63% |
| MTRN | Materion Corporation | 0.42% | $0.55 | 58.77% |