Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Emmi AG (0QM5.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,608.81 - $3,927.79$2,396.50
Multi-Stage$2,036.43 - $2,234.17$2,133.43
Blended Fair Value$2,264.96
Current Price$793.00
Upside185.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.49%15.09%15.5014.5014.0013.0012.009.0010.005.904.903.80
YoY Growth--6.90%3.57%7.69%8.33%33.33%-10.00%69.49%20.41%28.95%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.11%1.59%1.79%1.21%1.32%1.07%1.47%0.84%0.79%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)405.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)171.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.2050.7530.45
Cash Retained (M)234.80234.80234.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.20-50.75-30.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)153.60184.05204.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.355.355.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share28.7134.4038.20
LTM Dividend per Share32.0032.0032.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share28.7134.4038.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.7166.4170.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Fair Value$1,608.81$2,396.50$3,927.79
Upside / Downside102.88%202.21%395.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)405.99420.10434.69449.80465.43481.60496.05
Payout Ratio42.17%51.73%61.30%70.87%80.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)171.19217.33266.47318.76374.36433.44458.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Year 1 PV (M)202.40204.37206.35
Year 2 PV (M)231.10235.63240.21
Year 3 PV (M)257.45265.06272.82
Year 4 PV (M)281.58292.73304.21
Year 5 PV (M)303.61318.72334.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,617.7310,096.2610,593.64
Equity Value (M)10,893.8711,412.7711,951.65
Shares Outstanding (M)5.355.355.35
Fair Value$2,036.43$2,133.43$2,234.17
Upside / Downside156.80%169.03%181.74%

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