Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cencora (0HF3.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$875.38 - $1,586.25$1,486.55
Multi-Stage$249.56 - $273.30$261.21
Blended Fair Value$873.88
Current Price$312.53
Upside179.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.93%5.58%2.242.140.002.011.881.761.741.711.641.48
YoY Growth--5.03%0.00%-100.00%6.83%6.71%1.36%1.78%3.99%11.02%13.61%
Dividend Yield--0.72%0.95%0.00%1.21%1.42%1.80%2.05%2.30%1.75%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,554.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)437.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,117.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)310.83194.27116.56
Cash Retained (M)1,117.091,117.091,117.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-310.83-194.27-116.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)806.25922.821,000.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)194.85194.85194.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.144.745.13
LTM Dividend per Share2.242.242.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.144.745.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.386.987.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$875.38$1,486.55$1,586.25
Upside / Downside180.10%375.65%407.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,554.171,655.191,762.781,877.361,999.392,129.352,193.23
Payout Ratio28.12%40.50%52.87%65.25%77.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)437.08670.33932.051,224.961,552.021,916.412,028.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)624.86630.78636.71
Year 2 PV (M)809.90825.33840.90
Year 3 PV (M)992.231,020.711,049.73
Year 4 PV (M)1,171.871,216.941,263.30
Year 5 PV (M)1,348.871,414.021,481.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,680.6645,790.4647,981.00
Equity Value (M)48,628.3950,898.2453,253.29
Shares Outstanding (M)194.85194.85194.85
Fair Value$249.56$261.21$273.30
Upside / Downside-20.15%-16.42%-12.55%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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