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Savencia S.A. (0DTK.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$454.05 - $2,303.74$813.78
Multi-Stage$403.35 - $442.43$422.53
Blended Fair Value$618.16
Current Price$64.40
Upside859.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.76%4.59%1.641.311.531.540.101.031.461.661.040.84
YoY Growth--25.41%-14.58%-0.30%1,493.80%-90.64%-29.30%-12.28%59.38%24.27%-19.96%
Dividend Yield--3.10%2.38%2.62%2.51%0.16%1.68%2.61%2.09%1.56%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)190.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.1623.8514.31
Cash Retained (M)151.14151.14151.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.16-23.85-14.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)112.98127.29136.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.3813.3813.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.449.5110.22
LTM Dividend per Share2.962.962.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.449.5110.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.4112.4813.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Fair Value$454.05$813.78$2,303.74
Upside / Downside605.05%1,163.64%3,477.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)190.79199.77209.17219.01229.31240.10247.30
Payout Ratio20.78%34.63%48.47%62.31%76.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.6669.18101.38136.47174.64216.09228.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Year 1 PV (M)64.4565.0765.69
Year 2 PV (M)88.0089.7191.43
Year 3 PV (M)110.36113.59116.87
Year 4 PV (M)131.57136.72142.02
Year 5 PV (M)151.68159.14166.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,851.475,089.945,337.69
Equity Value (M)5,397.545,654.165,920.58
Shares Outstanding (M)13.3813.3813.38
Fair Value$403.35$422.53$442.43
Upside / Downside526.32%556.10%587.01%

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