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CPMC Holdings Limited (0906.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.16 - $171.60$160.82
Multi-Stage$26.79 - $29.33$28.04
Blended Fair Value$94.43
Current Price$6.46
Upside1,361.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS11.50%13.07%0.220.220.260.190.130.130.180.040.060.07
YoY Growth--2.33%-17.31%38.74%47.84%-0.70%-29.24%307.28%-23.94%-18.75%11.29%
Dividend Yield--3.60%5.76%7.32%6.25%4.17%3.87%3.54%1.30%1.45%2.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)960.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)383.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)576.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)192.15120.0972.05
Cash Retained (M)576.89576.89576.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-192.15-120.09-72.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)384.74456.79504.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,113.421,113.421,113.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.16$160.82$171.60
Upside / Downside1,280.20%2,389.42%2,556.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)960.731,023.181,089.691,160.521,235.951,316.291,355.78
Payout Ratio39.95%49.96%59.97%69.98%79.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)383.85511.21653.51812.15988.651,184.661,254.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)476.32480.84485.35
Year 2 PV (M)567.35578.16589.07
Year 3 PV (M)656.96675.82695.03
Year 4 PV (M)745.15773.81803.28
Year 5 PV (M)831.95872.14913.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,553.1727,835.7029,167.31
Equity Value (M)29,830.9031,216.4532,653.90
Shares Outstanding (M)1,113.421,113.421,113.42
Fair Value$26.79$28.04$29.33
Upside / Downside314.74%334.00%353.99%

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