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Tan Chong International Limited (0693.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.13 - $3.03$2.57
Multi-Stage$4.98 - $5.50$5.24
Blended Fair Value$3.90
Current Price$1.08
Upside261.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.78%-4.68%0.060.100.070.050.100.110.110.100.100.10
YoY Growth---38.10%40.00%66.67%-55.00%-13.04%4.55%15.79%-5.00%-4.76%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.37%7.29%4.17%2.24%4.90%5.32%4.58%3.65%4.02%3.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)662.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)471.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)132.4882.8049.68
Cash Retained (M)471.13471.13471.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-132.48-82.80-49.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)338.65388.33421.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,013.312,013.312,013.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-4.66%-3.66%-2.66%
Fair Value$2.13$2.57$3.03
Upside / Downside97.17%138.13%180.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)662.39638.13614.75592.23570.54549.64566.13
Payout Ratio28.87%41.10%53.32%65.55%77.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.26262.27327.82388.21443.74494.68523.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-4.66%-3.66%-2.66%
Year 1 PV (M)242.29244.83247.38
Year 2 PV (M)279.78285.68291.64
Year 3 PV (M)306.09315.82325.76
Year 4 PV (M)323.22337.00351.21
Year 5 PV (M)332.88350.71369.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,551.549,009.549,486.96
Equity Value (M)10,035.8210,543.5911,072.25
Shares Outstanding (M)2,013.312,013.312,013.31
Fair Value$4.98$5.24$5.50
Upside / Downside361.55%384.90%409.22%

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