Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SPG Co., Ltd. (058610.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,723.56 - $9,112.92$7,264.24
Multi-Stage$6,686.66 - $7,317.69$6,996.31
Blended Fair Value$7,130.27
Current Price$27,600.00
Upside-74.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.18%0.00%200.27200.27245.29135.9890.6590.6543.5283.8836.530.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-18.35%80.39%50.00%0.00%108.30%-48.12%129.61%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.88%0.68%0.74%0.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,965.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,326.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,638.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,393.111,495.70897.42
Cash Retained (M)8,638.968,638.968,638.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,393.11-1,495.70-897.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,245.857,143.277,741.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.1522.1522.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share282.01322.53349.54
LTM Dividend per Share150.20150.20150.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share282.01322.53349.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend432.21472.73499.75
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Fair Value$5,723.56$7,264.24$9,112.92
Upside / Downside-79.26%-73.68%-66.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,965.5712,329.0412,703.5413,089.4313,487.0413,896.7214,313.62
Payout Ratio27.80%40.24%52.68%65.12%77.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,326.604,961.356,692.348,523.9110,460.5912,507.0513,240.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Year 1 PV (M)4,477.004,520.884,564.76
Year 2 PV (M)5,449.465,556.805,665.18
Year 3 PV (M)6,263.296,449.246,638.85
Year 4 PV (M)6,935.977,211.897,495.96
Year 5 PV (M)7,483.317,857.268,246.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)117,483.81123,354.65129,457.87
Equity Value (M)148,092.84154,950.72162,068.63
Shares Outstanding (M)22.1522.1522.15
Fair Value$6,686.66$6,996.31$7,317.69
Upside / Downside-75.77%-74.65%-73.49%

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