Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangdong Sanhe Pile Co., Ltd. (003037.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.36 - $2.13$1.71
Multi-Stage$3.28 - $3.61$3.44
Blended Fair Value$2.58
Current Price$7.91
Upside-67.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-17.99%0.00%0.140.210.170.170.050.380.330.240.130.00
YoY Growth---31.44%20.98%-0.70%279.30%-88.12%16.65%38.51%82.16%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.34%2.36%1.41%1.60%0.25%4.15%3.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9810.616.37
Cash Retained (M)42.3342.3342.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.98-10.61-6.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.3531.7135.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)600.82600.82600.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.15%6.15%6.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.36$1.71$2.13
Upside / Downside-82.81%-78.35%-73.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.8984.0483.2082.3781.5580.7383.16
Payout Ratio50.14%58.11%66.09%74.06%82.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.5748.8454.9961.0066.8972.6676.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.15%6.15%6.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)45.5546.0146.48
Year 2 PV (M)47.8248.8049.79
Year 3 PV (M)49.4851.0152.57
Year 4 PV (M)50.5952.6954.85
Year 5 PV (M)51.2553.9256.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,723.751,813.511,906.97
Equity Value (M)1,968.442,065.942,167.36
Shares Outstanding (M)600.82600.82600.82
Fair Value$3.28$3.44$3.61
Upside / Downside-58.58%-56.53%-54.40%

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