Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Rainbow Appliance (Group) Shares Co., Ltd. (003023.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.18 - $17.64$13.38
Multi-Stage$11.90 - $13.01$12.44
Blended Fair Value$12.91
Current Price$22.20
Upside-41.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.22%0.00%0.400.350.310.310.220.310.280.270.310.00
YoY Growth--14.87%12.77%-1.21%40.73%-28.39%9.83%5.37%-13.61%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.24%2.14%1.50%1.65%0.94%1.18%1.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.3710.236.14
Cash Retained (M)39.4139.4139.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.37-10.23-6.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.0429.1833.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.33105.33105.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.280.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.280.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate2.54%3.54%4.54%
Fair Value$10.18$13.38$17.64
Upside / Downside-54.13%-39.71%-20.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.8484.7487.7590.8694.0897.41100.33
Payout Ratio51.85%59.48%67.11%74.74%82.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.4350.4058.8867.9077.4987.6792.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate2.54%3.54%4.54%
Year 1 PV (M)45.8846.3246.77
Year 2 PV (M)48.7949.7450.71
Year 3 PV (M)51.2152.7254.26
Year 4 PV (M)53.1955.2957.46
Year 5 PV (M)54.7757.5060.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)999.181,048.861,100.50
Equity Value (M)1,253.021,310.441,370.03
Shares Outstanding (M)105.33105.33105.33
Fair Value$11.90$12.44$13.01
Upside / Downside-46.42%-43.96%-41.41%

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