Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongyan Technology Co., Ltd. (003001.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.39 - $17.76$10.95
Multi-Stage$5.52 - $6.01$5.76
Blended Fair Value$8.35
Current Price$22.81
Upside-63.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.12%21.59%0.110.140.190.250.000.070.030.080.030.01
YoY Growth---21.75%-30.50%-21.76%11,239.36%-96.79%137.16%-65.72%163.91%178.55%-23.64%
Dividend Yield--0.44%1.25%1.67%1.77%0.01%0.29%0.00%0.35%0.13%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.736.083.65
Cash Retained (M)13.6313.6313.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.73-6.08-3.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.907.559.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.72141.72141.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.39$10.95$17.76
Upside / Downside-67.60%-51.99%-22.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48.6751.8455.2158.8062.6266.6968.69
Payout Ratio71.99%75.59%79.19%82.80%86.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.0439.1943.7248.6854.1060.0263.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)35.4835.8136.15
Year 2 PV (M)35.8336.5237.20
Year 3 PV (M)36.1237.1638.21
Year 4 PV (M)36.3437.7439.18
Year 5 PV (M)36.5038.2640.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)601.58630.64660.80
Equity Value (M)781.85816.12851.64
Shares Outstanding (M)141.72141.72141.72
Fair Value$5.52$5.76$6.01
Upside / Downside-75.81%-74.75%-73.66%

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