Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang AngLiKang Pharmaceutical CO.,LTD. (002940.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.84 - $7.35$6.02
Multi-Stage$7.46 - $8.18$7.81
Blended Fair Value$6.92
Current Price$38.02
Upside-81.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.74%-2.42%0.300.210.170.240.450.340.010.230.150.11
YoY Growth--40.81%22.19%-27.41%-47.75%33.35%3,406.00%-95.74%55.50%34.61%-71.23%
Dividend Yield--2.15%1.28%0.75%1.29%2.53%1.69%0.05%1.44%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6213.518.11
Cash Retained (M)67.8767.8767.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.62-13.51-8.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.2654.3659.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.37198.37198.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.50
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate-0.38%0.62%1.62%
Fair Value$4.84$6.02$7.35
Upside / Downside-87.26%-84.17%-80.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108.09108.76109.44110.12110.80111.49114.83
Payout Ratio37.21%47.77%58.32%68.88%79.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.2251.9563.8375.8588.02100.34106.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate-0.38%0.62%1.62%
Year 1 PV (M)47.3747.8448.32
Year 2 PV (M)53.0654.1355.21
Year 3 PV (M)57.4959.2461.02
Year 4 PV (M)60.8363.3065.86
Year 5 PV (M)63.2266.4669.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,197.201,258.511,322.30
Equity Value (M)1,479.161,549.471,622.53
Shares Outstanding (M)198.37198.37198.37
Fair Value$7.46$7.81$8.18
Upside / Downside-80.39%-79.46%-78.49%

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