Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HUAXI Securities Co., Ltd. (002926.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.79 - $11.31$8.78
Multi-Stage$11.79 - $12.96$12.36
Blended Fair Value$10.57
Current Price$10.27
Upside2.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.17%31.88%0.300.320.390.350.290.220.210.340.370.04
YoY Growth---6.93%-16.99%11.90%21.16%28.77%6.16%-38.85%-6.30%717.76%137.26%
Dividend Yield--3.45%4.31%4.74%4.15%2.89%2.12%1.70%2.56%2.69%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,533.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)476.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,056.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)306.64191.65114.99
Cash Retained (M)1,056.221,056.221,056.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-306.64-191.65-114.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)749.58864.57941.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,646.582,646.582,646.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Fair Value$6.79$8.78$11.31
Upside / Downside-33.93%-14.50%10.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,533.211,549.151,565.271,581.551,598.001,614.631,663.07
Payout Ratio31.11%42.89%54.67%66.44%78.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)476.99664.41855.681,050.851,249.991,453.161,538.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate0.04%1.04%2.04%
Year 1 PV (M)615.53621.68627.83
Year 2 PV (M)734.40749.15764.05
Year 3 PV (M)835.55860.86886.67
Year 4 PV (M)920.77958.14996.64
Year 5 PV (M)991.671,042.241,094.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,102.6628,484.6029,922.34
Equity Value (M)31,200.5732,716.6634,292.38
Shares Outstanding (M)2,646.582,646.582,646.58
Fair Value$11.79$12.36$12.96
Upside / Downside14.79%20.37%26.17%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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