Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Chongqing Pharscin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002907.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.55 - $4.58$3.40
Multi-Stage$2.49 - $2.71$2.60
Blended Fair Value$3.00
Current Price$16.32
Upside-81.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.05%21.14%0.080.070.060.030.050.040.070.000.010.01
YoY Growth--17.67%30.92%71.96%-30.84%30.56%-49.89%2,594.63%-55.83%-29.36%-32.45%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.51%0.31%0.20%0.37%0.19%0.30%0.01%0.09%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.929.335.60
Cash Retained (M)18.2318.2318.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.92-9.33-5.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.318.9112.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)417.68417.68417.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Fair Value$2.55$3.40$4.58
Upside / Downside-84.36%-79.16%-71.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74.6178.4682.5286.7891.2795.9898.86
Payout Ratio75.56%78.45%81.34%84.22%87.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.3861.5567.1273.0979.5086.3891.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)55.4355.9656.49
Year 2 PV (M)54.4255.4756.53
Year 3 PV (M)53.3654.9256.50
Year 4 PV (M)52.2754.3056.40
Year 5 PV (M)51.1453.6456.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)773.37811.21850.52
Equity Value (M)1,039.981,085.491,132.67
Shares Outstanding (M)417.68417.68417.68
Fair Value$2.49$2.60$2.71
Upside / Downside-84.74%-84.08%-83.38%

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