Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Jiuyuan Yinhai Software.Co.,Ltd (002777.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.23 - $3.39$2.78
Multi-Stage$3.13 - $3.42$3.27
Blended Fair Value$3.02
Current Price$18.99
Upside-84.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.58%1.83%0.130.100.160.120.110.110.110.100.100.15
YoY Growth--20.00%-35.00%33.33%5.00%4.00%0.00%7.84%0.00%-33.33%46.78%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.46%0.57%0.81%0.79%0.52%0.66%0.63%0.62%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.4512.157.29
Cash Retained (M)34.7534.7534.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.45-12.15-7.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.3022.6027.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)390.39390.39390.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Fair Value$2.23$2.78$3.39
Upside / Downside-88.24%-85.39%-82.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.2498.77100.33101.91103.52105.15108.31
Payout Ratio64.26%69.41%74.56%79.70%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.4868.5574.8081.2387.8494.64100.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Year 1 PV (M)61.9662.5863.19
Year 2 PV (M)61.1062.3263.56
Year 3 PV (M)59.9761.7763.62
Year 4 PV (M)58.6160.9863.41
Year 5 PV (M)57.0759.9762.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)921.75968.491,017.11
Equity Value (M)1,220.461,276.111,333.87
Shares Outstanding (M)390.39390.39390.39
Fair Value$3.13$3.27$3.42
Upside / Downside-83.54%-82.79%-82.01%

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