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Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. (002736.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$73.11 - $236.09$221.25
Multi-Stage$31.65 - $34.61$33.10
Blended Fair Value$127.18
Current Price$13.53
Upside839.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.70%22.34%0.670.590.770.440.400.390.410.490.770.29
YoY Growth--13.58%-23.26%74.10%11.53%2.73%-5.16%-16.43%-36.88%168.24%221.85%
Dividend Yield--6.54%6.87%8.21%4.45%3.31%3.48%2.97%4.48%5.29%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,475.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,433.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,041.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,495.021,559.39935.63
Cash Retained (M)6,041.916,041.916,041.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,495.02-1,559.39-935.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,546.894,482.525,106.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,508.6310,508.6310,508.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.430.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.430.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.951.041.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$73.11$221.25$236.09
Upside / Downside440.35%1,535.27%1,644.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,475.1213,286.0014,149.5915,069.3216,048.8217,092.0017,604.76
Payout Ratio51.57%59.25%66.94%74.63%82.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,433.217,872.579,471.8811,245.8313,210.3715,382.8016,284.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,297.297,366.467,435.63
Year 2 PV (M)8,138.168,293.178,449.64
Year 3 PV (M)8,956.269,213.379,475.34
Year 4 PV (M)9,752.0410,127.0810,512.83
Year 5 PV (M)10,525.9411,034.3511,562.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)287,894.95301,800.39316,238.01
Equity Value (M)332,564.66347,834.81363,673.67
Shares Outstanding (M)10,508.6310,508.6310,508.63
Fair Value$31.65$33.10$34.61
Upside / Downside133.90%144.64%155.78%

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