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Guangdong Chant Group Inc. (002616.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.83 - $77.09$72.25
Multi-Stage$12.01 - $13.13$12.56
Blended Fair Value$42.40
Current Price$6.89
Upside515.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.81%44.82%0.470.330.360.510.460.170.330.060.100.25
YoY Growth--42.99%-7.07%-29.52%10.76%169.26%-48.02%436.34%-40.00%-58.75%2,005.79%
Dividend Yield--8.24%7.14%6.91%9.49%5.76%2.10%3.67%0.79%0.88%2.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)210.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.0736.9222.15
Cash Retained (M)85.3285.3285.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.07-36.92-22.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.2548.4063.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)761.89761.89761.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.83$72.25$77.09
Upside / Downside434.55%948.59%1,018.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.35314.54334.99356.76379.95404.65416.79
Payout Ratio71.11%74.89%78.67%82.45%86.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)210.03235.56263.53294.13327.61364.18385.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)219.34221.42223.50
Year 2 PV (M)228.48232.83237.22
Year 3 PV (M)237.45244.27251.21
Year 4 PV (M)246.26255.73265.47
Year 5 PV (M)254.90267.21279.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,963.778,348.428,747.80
Equity Value (M)9,150.199,569.8710,005.18
Shares Outstanding (M)761.89761.89761.89
Fair Value$12.01$12.56$13.13
Upside / Downside74.31%82.30%90.60%

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