Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (002611.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.60 - $60.56$26.44
Multi-Stage$48.56 - $53.62$51.04
Blended Fair Value$38.74
Current Price$18.02
Upside114.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.77%0.82%0.020.010.010.010.010.080.090.040.020.02
YoY Growth--37.44%101.21%-13.56%-35.92%-83.19%-13.32%122.26%155.29%-15.63%1.53%
Dividend Yield--0.16%0.19%0.14%0.17%0.31%1.69%1.96%0.30%0.09%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)680.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)230.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)450.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)136.1985.1251.07
Cash Retained (M)450.01450.01450.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-136.19-85.12-51.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)313.83364.90398.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.631,200.631,200.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.500.52
WACC / Discount Rate1.69%1.69%1.69%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Fair Value$15.60$26.44$60.56
Upside / Downside-13.41%46.73%236.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)680.93679.67678.42677.17675.92674.68694.92
Payout Ratio33.91%45.13%56.35%67.56%78.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)230.92306.73382.27457.53532.51607.21642.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.69%1.69%1.69%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Year 1 PV (M)298.62301.64304.66
Year 2 PV (M)362.31369.68377.12
Year 3 PV (M)422.16435.11448.32
Year 4 PV (M)478.34498.00518.26
Year 5 PV (M)531.01558.43586.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)56,213.3759,115.8862,137.06
Equity Value (M)58,305.8161,278.7364,372.38
Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.631,200.631,200.63
Fair Value$48.56$51.04$53.62
Upside / Downside169.49%183.23%197.53%

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