Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Qingdao Hanhe Cable Co.,Ltd (002498.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.55 - $32.46$30.42
Multi-Stage$18.11 - $19.89$18.98
Blended Fair Value$24.70
Current Price$3.60
Upside586.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.08%-3.69%0.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.020.13
YoY Growth---6.80%7.97%3.29%1.43%0.08%-14.17%8.80%58.03%-81.78%141.95%
Dividend Yield--1.06%1.09%0.92%0.84%0.94%0.95%1.32%1.27%0.59%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)547.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)163.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)383.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109.4568.4041.04
Cash Retained (M)383.74383.74383.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-109.45-68.40-41.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)274.30315.34342.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,325.863,325.863,325.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate2.34%2.34%2.34%
Growth Rate4.64%5.64%6.64%
Fair Value$27.55$30.42$32.46
Upside / Downside665.23%744.97%801.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)547.23578.11610.74645.21681.62720.09741.70
Payout Ratio29.88%41.90%53.93%65.95%77.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)163.48242.23329.34425.52531.50648.08686.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.34%2.34%2.34%
Growth Rate4.64%5.64%6.64%
Year 1 PV (M)234.45236.69238.93
Year 2 PV (M)308.52314.45320.43
Year 3 PV (M)385.81396.98408.36
Year 4 PV (M)466.43484.51503.12
Year 5 PV (M)550.47577.28605.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,273.5761,111.6764,059.29
Equity Value (M)60,219.2563,121.5866,135.26
Shares Outstanding (M)3,325.863,325.863,325.86
Fair Value$18.11$18.98$19.89
Upside / Downside402.95%427.19%452.36%

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