Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Dajin Heavy Industry Corporation (002487.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.68 - $79.61$50.61
Multi-Stage$24.27 - $26.53$25.38
Blended Fair Value$38.00
Current Price$47.21
Upside-19.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS85.01%42.05%0.190.060.100.020.020.010.010.010.020.01
YoY Growth--204.51%-39.49%470.16%-25.74%177.84%-13.62%-11.97%-32.37%169.48%11.33%
Dividend Yield--0.79%0.28%0.29%0.06%0.26%0.19%0.21%0.26%0.19%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,079.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,014.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)215.83134.8980.94
Cash Retained (M)1,014.521,014.521,014.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-215.83-134.89-80.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)798.69879.63933.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)639.02639.02639.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.251.381.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.251.381.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.351.481.56
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.68$50.61$79.61
Upside / Downside-26.53%7.21%68.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,079.141,149.281,223.981,303.541,388.271,478.511,522.87
Payout Ratio5.99%22.79%39.59%56.40%73.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.62261.93484.61735.141,016.181,330.661,408.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)236.72238.96241.21
Year 2 PV (M)395.83403.36410.98
Year 3 PV (M)542.67558.25574.12
Year 4 PV (M)677.94704.02730.83
Year 5 PV (M)802.32841.07881.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,850.7513,471.4414,115.90
Equity Value (M)15,506.2216,217.1016,954.33
Shares Outstanding (M)639.02639.02639.02
Fair Value$24.27$25.38$26.53
Upside / Downside-48.60%-46.24%-43.80%

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