Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Changgao Electric Group Co., Ltd. (002452.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.03 - $20.40$13.10
Multi-Stage$6.46 - $7.06$6.75
Blended Fair Value$9.93
Current Price$7.70
Upside28.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.63%13.92%0.080.030.080.100.100.020.040.050.070.04
YoY Growth--151.82%-61.82%-18.37%-4.36%387.58%-45.62%-15.75%-31.61%59.44%101.35%
Dividend Yield--1.03%0.46%1.26%1.40%1.85%0.37%0.85%0.82%0.82%0.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)273.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)220.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.7534.2220.53
Cash Retained (M)220.57220.57220.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.75-34.22-20.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)165.82186.35200.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)612.57612.57612.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.03$13.10$20.40
Upside / Downside17.25%70.19%164.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)273.77291.56310.52330.70352.19375.09386.34
Payout Ratio19.43%33.55%47.66%61.77%75.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.2097.81147.99204.28267.27337.58357.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)88.3489.1890.01
Year 2 PV (M)120.72123.02125.34
Year 3 PV (M)150.51154.83159.24
Year 4 PV (M)177.86184.70191.73
Year 5 PV (M)202.90212.70222.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,216.413,371.763,533.06
Equity Value (M)3,956.754,136.204,322.27
Shares Outstanding (M)612.57612.57612.57
Fair Value$6.46$6.75$7.06
Upside / Downside-16.11%-12.31%-8.36%

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