Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Fujian Star-net Communication Co., Ltd. (002396.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.02 - $69.21$35.37
Multi-Stage$14.61 - $15.95$15.27
Blended Fair Value$25.32
Current Price$30.35
Upside-16.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.02%5.69%0.320.140.170.150.140.110.150.100.090.06
YoY Growth--118.05%-13.98%13.73%8.33%21.90%-23.50%53.30%9.82%39.58%-65.67%
Dividend Yield--1.58%0.83%0.71%0.73%0.69%0.31%0.60%0.39%0.46%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)486.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)173.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)312.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)97.2560.7836.47
Cash Retained (M)312.29312.29312.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-97.25-60.78-36.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)215.05251.51275.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)582.36582.36582.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.02$35.37$69.21
Upside / Downside-27.43%16.55%128.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)486.24517.84551.50587.35625.53666.19686.18
Payout Ratio35.77%46.62%57.46%68.31%79.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)173.94241.41316.92401.22495.14599.57634.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)220.01222.09224.18
Year 2 PV (M)263.21268.22273.28
Year 3 PV (M)303.67312.39321.27
Year 4 PV (M)341.53354.66368.17
Year 5 PV (M)376.89395.09414.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,000.157,338.267,689.32
Equity Value (M)8,505.468,890.729,290.21
Shares Outstanding (M)582.36582.36582.36
Fair Value$14.61$15.27$15.95
Upside / Downside-51.88%-49.70%-47.44%

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