Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Shenjian New Materials Co.,Ltd (002361.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.44 - $0.73$0.56
Multi-Stage$0.65 - $0.71$0.68
Blended Fair Value$0.62
Current Price$6.13
Upside-89.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.69%10.47%0.150.140.140.130.120.130.070.060.060.02
YoY Growth--5.59%-3.52%8.18%8.63%-9.16%81.54%21.50%5.31%191.16%-63.20%
Dividend Yield--2.20%3.74%3.43%2.92%2.65%3.30%1.55%1.19%0.66%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.954.352.61
Cash Retained (M)6.786.786.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.95-4.35-2.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.172.434.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)949.95949.95949.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate1.07%2.07%3.07%
Fair Value$0.44$0.56$0.73
Upside / Downside-92.89%-90.79%-88.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34.7635.4836.2236.9637.7338.5139.66
Payout Ratio80.50%82.40%84.30%86.20%88.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.9829.2430.5331.8633.2434.6636.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate1.07%2.07%3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)26.8427.1127.37
Year 2 PV (M)25.7326.2526.76
Year 3 PV (M)24.6625.4026.15
Year 4 PV (M)23.6224.5625.54
Year 5 PV (M)22.6123.7524.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)493.07517.95543.83
Equity Value (M)616.53645.02674.59
Shares Outstanding (M)949.95949.95949.95
Fair Value$0.65$0.68$0.71
Upside / Downside-89.41%-88.92%-88.42%

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