Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (002349.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.86 - $30.44$13.31
Multi-Stage$11.13 - $12.22$11.66
Blended Fair Value$12.49
Current Price$7.15
Upside74.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.37%18.22%0.090.080.070.050.020.070.070.080.040.04
YoY Growth--14.49%22.20%21.34%123.02%-67.29%6.33%-17.01%124.34%4.77%107.57%
Dividend Yield--1.28%1.00%0.62%0.24%0.55%1.32%1.01%1.09%0.31%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)224.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.9628.1016.86
Cash Retained (M)118.99118.99118.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.96-28.10-16.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.0390.89102.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)814.28814.28814.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate2.37%3.37%4.37%
Fair Value$7.86$13.31$30.44
Upside / Downside9.96%86.20%325.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)224.79232.36240.19248.28256.64265.28273.24
Payout Ratio47.07%55.65%64.24%72.83%81.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.80129.31154.29180.81208.94238.75252.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate2.37%3.37%4.37%
Year 1 PV (M)121.68122.87124.06
Year 2 PV (M)136.62139.30142.01
Year 3 PV (M)150.65155.11159.65
Year 4 PV (M)163.81170.31176.99
Year 5 PV (M)176.14184.92194.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,312.088,726.089,156.42
Equity Value (M)9,060.999,498.599,953.18
Shares Outstanding (M)814.28814.28814.28
Fair Value$11.13$11.66$12.22
Upside / Downside55.63%63.15%70.95%

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