Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Accelink Technologies Co,Ltd. (002281.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.18 - $51.89$33.54
Multi-Stage$16.52 - $18.05$17.27
Blended Fair Value$25.40
Current Price$66.60
Upside-61.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.85%15.26%0.240.170.150.150.150.150.140.130.130.13
YoY Growth--41.41%14.71%0.14%3.13%-0.09%3.19%8.52%-2.07%0.00%125.47%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.42%0.58%0.83%0.65%0.46%0.44%0.45%0.55%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)916.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)789.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)183.26114.5468.72
Cash Retained (M)789.17789.17789.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-183.26-114.54-68.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)605.91674.63720.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)790.36790.36790.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.850.91
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.850.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.18$33.54$51.89
Upside / Downside-65.20%-49.65%-22.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)916.28975.841,039.271,106.821,178.771,255.391,293.05
Payout Ratio13.87%29.10%44.32%59.55%74.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.11283.95460.64659.10881.421,129.851,196.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)256.36258.79261.22
Year 2 PV (M)375.48382.63389.85
Year 3 PV (M)485.05498.97513.16
Year 4 PV (M)585.63608.16631.32
Year 5 PV (M)677.76710.50744.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,674.4411,190.0211,725.33
Equity Value (M)13,054.7313,649.0714,265.37
Shares Outstanding (M)790.36790.36790.36
Fair Value$16.52$17.27$18.05
Upside / Downside-75.20%-74.07%-72.90%

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