Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Noposion Agrochemicals Co.,Ltd (002215.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.17 - $134.55$126.09
Multi-Stage$22.06 - $24.14$23.08
Blended Fair Value$74.59
Current Price$12.91
Upside477.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.77%7.10%0.220.150.200.090.140.050.140.010.090.07
YoY Growth--44.22%-24.60%117.38%-32.50%189.15%-65.98%926.13%-85.53%31.32%-35.08%
Dividend Yield--2.41%1.75%2.69%1.39%2.45%0.78%2.06%0.17%0.87%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)672.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)411.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)261.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.5084.0650.44
Cash Retained (M)261.05261.05261.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.50-84.06-50.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.55176.99210.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)994.04994.04994.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.17$126.09$134.55
Upside / Downside528.70%876.68%942.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)672.51716.22762.77812.36865.16921.39949.04
Payout Ratio61.18%66.95%72.71%78.47%84.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)411.45479.48554.61637.48728.78829.25877.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)447.23451.47455.71
Year 2 PV (M)482.52491.71500.99
Year 3 PV (M)517.32532.17547.30
Year 4 PV (M)551.63572.85594.67
Year 5 PV (M)585.47613.75643.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,347.2820,281.7721,252.01
Equity Value (M)21,931.4622,943.7223,993.79
Shares Outstanding (M)994.04994.04994.04
Fair Value$22.06$23.08$24.14
Upside / Downside70.90%78.79%86.97%

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