Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

J.S. Corrugating Machinery Co., Ltd. (000821.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.46 - $88.90$83.32
Multi-Stage$52.31 - $57.41$54.81
Blended Fair Value$69.06
Current Price$12.68
Upside444.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.24%13.26%0.140.040.030.040.050.060.070.050.040.03
YoY Growth--225.23%34.15%-25.30%-9.32%-25.05%-14.04%47.72%17.15%33.94%-21.31%
Dividend Yield--1.11%0.30%0.13%0.45%0.66%0.95%0.73%0.40%0.26%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)280.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)182.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.1235.0721.04
Cash Retained (M)182.12182.12182.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.12-35.07-21.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.00147.05161.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)627.67627.67627.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate1.92%1.92%1.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$75.46$83.32$88.90
Upside / Downside495.10%557.06%601.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)280.59298.83318.25338.94360.97384.43395.96
Payout Ratio35.09%46.08%57.06%68.04%79.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98.47137.69181.58230.60285.23345.99366.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.92%1.92%1.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)133.82135.09136.36
Year 2 PV (M)171.53174.79178.09
Year 3 PV (M)211.72217.80223.99
Year 4 PV (M)254.52264.31274.37
Year 5 PV (M)300.06314.55329.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,764.7933,299.0434,892.01
Equity Value (M)32,836.4334,405.5836,034.42
Shares Outstanding (M)627.67627.67627.67
Fair Value$52.31$54.81$57.41
Upside / Downside312.58%332.29%352.76%

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