Definitive Analysis
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Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd (000538.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$237.24 - $578.38$542.02
Multi-Stage$87.06 - $95.14$91.03
Blended Fair Value$316.53
Current Price$56.75
Upside457.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.35%32.30%3.321.541.182.762.191.490.110.520.390.33
YoY Growth--116.31%29.95%-57.19%26.36%46.35%1,201.69%-77.96%34.57%19.03%60.56%
Dividend Yield--5.85%3.03%2.16%4.73%2.54%2.44%0.18%0.74%0.64%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,199.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,402.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)796.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,039.96649.98389.99
Cash Retained (M)796.98796.98796.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,039.96-649.98-389.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-242.98147.01407.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,787.951,787.951,787.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.080.23
LTM Dividend per Share2.462.462.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.080.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.332.542.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$237.24$542.02$578.38
Upside / Downside318.04%855.11%919.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,199.815,537.795,897.756,281.116,689.387,124.197,337.91
Payout Ratio84.67%85.74%86.80%87.87%88.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,402.834,748.015,119.475,519.155,949.176,411.776,787.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,414.934,456.784,498.62
Year 2 PV (M)4,426.384,510.694,595.80
Year 3 PV (M)4,437.194,564.574,694.36
Year 4 PV (M)4,447.384,618.414,794.33
Year 5 PV (M)4,456.954,672.224,895.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)133,483.67139,930.98146,625.04
Equity Value (M)155,666.50162,753.65170,103.89
Shares Outstanding (M)1,787.951,787.951,787.95
Fair Value$87.06$91.03$95.14
Upside / Downside53.42%60.40%67.65%

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