Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $7.05 - $11.60 | $9.07 |
| Multi-Stage | $5.69 - $6.20 | $5.94 |
| Blended Fair Value | $7.51 | |
| Current Price | $12.86 | |
| Upside | -41.63% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 20.28% | 15.48% | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 59.34% | 1.87% | 68.13% | -6.94% | -0.89% | -12.13% | 31.04% | 21.59% | 12.05% | 6.83% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.78% | 0.48% | 0.30% | 0.19% | 0.14% | 0.26% | 0.51% | 0.68% | 0.60% | 0.49% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 986.61 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 168.86 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 817.76 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 197.32 | 123.33 | 74.00 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 817.76 | 817.76 | 817.76 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -197.32 | -123.33 | -74.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 620.43 | 694.43 | 743.76 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,675.88 | 1,675.88 | 1,675.88 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.37 | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.37 | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 12.55% | 12.55% | 12.55% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $7.05 | $9.07 | $11.60 |
| Upside / Downside | -45.17% | -29.45% | -9.80% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 986.61 | 1,050.74 | 1,119.04 | 1,191.78 | 1,269.25 | 1,351.75 | 1,392.30 |
| Payout Ratio | 17.11% | 31.69% | 46.27% | 60.85% | 75.42% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 168.86 | 333.00 | 517.77 | 725.15 | 957.30 | 1,216.57 | 1,287.88 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 12.55% | 12.55% | 12.55% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 293.10 | 295.88 | 298.66 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 401.12 | 408.76 | 416.47 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 494.47 | 508.66 | 523.12 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 574.55 | 596.65 | 619.37 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 642.67 | 673.71 | 705.94 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 7,126.34 | 7,470.54 | 7,827.92 |
| Equity Value (M) | 9,532.24 | 9,954.20 | 10,391.49 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,675.88 | 1,675.88 | 1,675.88 |
| Fair Value | $5.69 | $5.94 | $6.20 |
| Upside / Downside | -55.77% | -53.81% | -51.78% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | 0.69% | $1.10 | 22.00% |
| RRBI | Red River Bancshares, Inc. | 0.69% | $0.48 | 7.90% |
| SSD | Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | 0.69% | $1.14 | 13.76% |
| WCC | WESCO International, Inc. | 0.69% | $1.75 | 13.38% |
| ALG | Alamo Group Inc. | 0.68% | $1.15 | 11.96% |
| CBK | Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. Common Stock | 0.68% | $0.16 | 6.13% |
| IRMD | IRadimed Corporation | 0.68% | $0.65 | 39.59% |
| UNF | UniFirst Corporation | 0.68% | $1.32 | 16.37% |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | 0.68% | $1.90 | 19.65% |
| 0HF3.L | Cencora | 0.67% | $2.25 | 28.12% |
| AIT | Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | 0.67% | $1.75 | 16.64% |
| CLMB | Climb Global Solutions, Inc. | 0.67% | $0.68 | 14.50% |
| ASTH | Astrana Health, Inc. | 0.66% | $0.17 | 86.52% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | 0.66% | $2.28 | 48.18% |
| ENS | EnerSys | 0.66% | $0.99 | 11.20% |
| HLIO | Helios Technologies, Inc. | 0.66% | $0.36 | 35.50% |
| ICFI | ICF International, Inc. | 0.66% | $0.56 | 10.52% |
| VMC | Vulcan Materials Company | 0.66% | $1.93 | 22.82% |
| AAME | Atlantic American Corporation | 0.65% | $0.02 | 7.99% |
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | 0.65% | $1.73 | 19.78% |
| CRM | Salesforce, Inc. | 0.65% | $1.64 | 21.86% |
| GHC | Graham Holdings Company | 0.65% | $7.06 | 4.22% |
| LFAC | LF Capital Acquisition Corp. II | 0.65% | $0.07 | 24.33% |
| BSY | Bentley Systems, Incorporated | 0.64% | $0.25 | 30.41% |
| EHC | Encompass Health Corporation | 0.64% | $0.68 | 12.77% |
| LAD | Lithia Motors, Inc. | 0.64% | $2.13 | 6.25% |
| PRBM | Parabellum Acquisition Corp. | 0.64% | $0.06 | 5.11% |
| VRSN | VeriSign, Inc. | 0.64% | $1.54 | 17.77% |
| AWI | Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | 0.63% | $1.24 | 17.71% |
| ESQ | Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. | 0.63% | $0.64 | 11.29% |
| SGI | Somnigroup International Inc | 0.63% | $0.56 | 37.60% |
| ULS | UL Solutions Inc. | 0.63% | $0.51 | 30.38% |
| VMI | Valmont Industries, Inc. | 0.63% | $2.58 | 21.97% |
| ARCB | ArcBest Corporation | 0.62% | $0.48 | 11.39% |
| V | Visa Inc. | 0.62% | $2.13 | 23.10% |
| LSXMA | The Liberty SiriusXM Group | 0.61% | $0.14 | 1.73% |
| 0J1R.L | HCA Healthcare, Inc. | 0.60% | $2.81 | 10.70% |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | 0.60% | $5.66 | 14.34% |
| RXN | Zurn Water Solutions Corporation | 0.60% | $0.39 | 24.10% |
| 0I47.L | Costco Wholesale Corporation | 0.59% | $5.05 | 27.04% |
| DJCO | Daily Journal Corporation | 0.59% | $2.95 | 4.20% |
| DRS | Leonardo DRS, Inc. | 0.59% | $0.20 | 20.75% |
| FCNCA | First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | 0.59% | $12.69 | 7.01% |
| AME | AMETEK, Inc. | 0.58% | $1.20 | 19.00% |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 0.57% | $7.26 | 22.67% |
| SXI | Standex International Corporation | 0.57% | $1.27 | 29.15% |
| RDVT | Red Violet, Inc. | 0.56% | $0.29 | 37.32% |
| 0IRE.L | Fortive Corporation | 0.55% | $0.30 | 16.72% |
| AIMC | Altra Industrial Motion Corp. | 0.55% | $0.34 | 17.56% |
| BWXT | BWX Technologies, Inc. | 0.55% | $1.00 | 29.87% |