Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $83,455.04 - $112,780.62 | $98,466.07 |
| Multi-Stage | $266,124.48 - $295,422.01 | $280,460.88 |
| Blended Fair Value | $189,463.47 | |
| Current Price | $84,900.00 | |
| Upside | 123.16% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -11.62% | 5.29% | 4,207.41 | 7,087.17 | 10,428.50 | 7,825.69 | 5,764.83 | 7,803.46 | 10,435.94 | 9,426.14 | 6,598.30 | 4,974.19 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -40.63% | -32.04% | 33.26% | 35.75% | -26.12% | -25.23% | 10.71% | 42.86% | 32.65% | 97.97% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.77% | 11.85% | 15.43% | 9.11% | 6.48% | 12.77% | 13.82% | 7.69% | 4.87% | 3.45% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 324,576.91 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 66,652.81 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 257,924.09 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 64,915.38 | 40,572.11 | 24,343.27 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 257,924.09 | 257,924.09 | 257,924.09 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -64,915.38 | -40,572.11 | -24,343.27 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 193,008.71 | 217,351.98 | 233,580.83 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.65 | 17.65 | 17.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 10,937.20 | 12,316.65 | 13,236.29 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3,777.01 | 3,777.01 | 3,777.01 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 10,937.20 | 12,316.65 | 13,236.29 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 14,714.20 | 16,093.66 | 17,013.30 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -9.59% | -8.59% | -7.59% |
| Fair Value | $83,455.04 | $98,466.07 | $112,780.62 |
| Upside / Downside | -1.70% | 15.98% | 32.84% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 324,576.91 | 296,679.74 | 271,180.32 | 247,872.55 | 226,568.07 | 207,094.70 | 213,307.54 |
| Payout Ratio | 20.54% | 34.43% | 48.32% | 62.21% | 76.11% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 66,652.81 | 102,141.59 | 131,037.51 | 154,211.72 | 172,434.30 | 186,385.23 | 197,309.48 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -9.59% | -8.59% | -7.59% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 94,996.91 | 96,047.70 | 97,098.49 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 113,346.82 | 115,868.22 | 118,417.36 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 124,061.76 | 128,224.33 | 132,478.98 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 129,018.22 | 134,822.09 | 140,819.60 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 129,701.73 | 137,035.55 | 144,697.43 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,105,173.19 | 4,337,295.17 | 4,579,800.42 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,696,298.63 | 4,949,293.07 | 5,213,312.30 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.65 | 17.65 | 17.65 |
| Fair Value | $266,124.48 | $280,460.88 | $295,422.01 |
| Upside / Downside | 213.46% | 230.34% | 247.96% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | 0.69% | $1.10 | 22.00% |
| RRBI | Red River Bancshares, Inc. | 0.69% | $0.48 | 7.90% |
| SSD | Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | 0.69% | $1.14 | 13.76% |
| WCC | WESCO International, Inc. | 0.69% | $1.75 | 13.38% |
| ALG | Alamo Group Inc. | 0.68% | $1.15 | 11.96% |
| CBK | Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. Common Stock | 0.68% | $0.16 | 6.13% |
| IRMD | IRadimed Corporation | 0.68% | $0.65 | 39.59% |
| UNF | UniFirst Corporation | 0.68% | $1.32 | 16.37% |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | 0.68% | $1.90 | 19.65% |
| 0HF3.L | Cencora | 0.67% | $2.25 | 28.12% |
| AIT | Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | 0.67% | $1.75 | 16.64% |
| CLMB | Climb Global Solutions, Inc. | 0.67% | $0.68 | 14.50% |
| ASTH | Astrana Health, Inc. | 0.66% | $0.17 | 86.52% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | 0.66% | $2.28 | 48.18% |
| ENS | EnerSys | 0.66% | $0.99 | 11.20% |
| HLIO | Helios Technologies, Inc. | 0.66% | $0.36 | 35.50% |
| ICFI | ICF International, Inc. | 0.66% | $0.56 | 10.52% |
| VMC | Vulcan Materials Company | 0.66% | $1.93 | 22.82% |
| AAME | Atlantic American Corporation | 0.65% | $0.02 | 7.99% |
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | 0.65% | $1.73 | 19.78% |
| CRM | Salesforce, Inc. | 0.65% | $1.64 | 21.86% |
| GHC | Graham Holdings Company | 0.65% | $7.06 | 4.22% |
| LFAC | LF Capital Acquisition Corp. II | 0.65% | $0.07 | 24.33% |
| BSY | Bentley Systems, Incorporated | 0.64% | $0.25 | 30.41% |
| EHC | Encompass Health Corporation | 0.64% | $0.68 | 12.77% |
| LAD | Lithia Motors, Inc. | 0.64% | $2.13 | 6.25% |
| PRBM | Parabellum Acquisition Corp. | 0.64% | $0.06 | 5.11% |
| VRSN | VeriSign, Inc. | 0.64% | $1.54 | 17.77% |
| AWI | Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | 0.63% | $1.24 | 17.71% |
| ESQ | Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. | 0.63% | $0.64 | 11.29% |
| SGI | Somnigroup International Inc | 0.63% | $0.56 | 37.60% |
| ULS | UL Solutions Inc. | 0.63% | $0.51 | 30.38% |
| VMI | Valmont Industries, Inc. | 0.63% | $2.58 | 21.97% |
| ARCB | ArcBest Corporation | 0.62% | $0.48 | 11.39% |
| V | Visa Inc. | 0.62% | $2.13 | 23.10% |
| LSXMA | The Liberty SiriusXM Group | 0.61% | $0.14 | 1.73% |
| 0J1R.L | HCA Healthcare, Inc. | 0.60% | $2.81 | 10.70% |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | 0.60% | $5.66 | 14.34% |
| RXN | Zurn Water Solutions Corporation | 0.60% | $0.39 | 24.10% |
| 0I47.L | Costco Wholesale Corporation | 0.59% | $5.05 | 27.04% |
| DJCO | Daily Journal Corporation | 0.59% | $2.95 | 4.20% |
| DRS | Leonardo DRS, Inc. | 0.59% | $0.20 | 20.75% |
| FCNCA | First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | 0.59% | $12.69 | 7.01% |
| AME | AMETEK, Inc. | 0.58% | $1.20 | 19.00% |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 0.57% | $7.26 | 22.67% |
| SXI | Standex International Corporation | 0.57% | $1.27 | 29.15% |
| RDVT | Red Violet, Inc. | 0.56% | $0.29 | 37.32% |
| 0IRE.L | Fortive Corporation | 0.55% | $0.30 | 16.72% |
| AIMC | Altra Industrial Motion Corp. | 0.55% | $0.34 | 17.56% |
| BWXT | BWX Technologies, Inc. | 0.55% | $1.00 | 29.87% |