DDM Analysis: VAS.DE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.14 - $9.33	$6.89
Multi-Stage	$7.42 - $8.14	$7.77
Blended Fair Value	$7.33
Current Price	$30.38
Upside	-75.88%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-11.58%	-6.30%	0.23	0.50	0.41	0.17	0.07	0.43	0.53	0.43	0.41	0.39
YoY Growth	-	-	-53.34%	20.07%	139.87%	150.14%	-83.92%	-19.80%	23.63%	4.77%	4.35%	-10.96%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.97%	1.96%	1.25%	0.85%	0.20%	2.23%	1.94%	1.09%	1.01%	1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	188.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	102.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	85.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	37.60	23.50	14.10
Cash Retained (M)	85.10	85.10	85.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-37.60	-23.50	-14.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	47.50	61.60	71.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	519.24	519.24	519.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.12	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.12	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.29	0.32	0.33
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%	7.19%	7.19%
Growth Rate	1.47%	2.47%	3.47%
Fair Value	$5.14	$6.89	$9.33
Upside / Downside	-83.07%	-77.33%	-69.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	188.00	192.65	197.42	202.30	207.30	212.43	218.80
Payout Ratio	54.73%	61.79%	68.84%	75.89%	82.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	102.90	119.03	135.90	153.53	171.95	191.19	202.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%	7.19%	7.19%
Growth Rate	1.47%	2.47%	3.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	109.97	111.05	112.13
Year 2 PV (M)	115.99	118.29	120.61
Year 3 PV (M)	121.06	124.67	128.36
Year 4 PV (M)	125.25	130.26	135.42
Year 5 PV (M)	128.66	135.12	141.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,252.29	3,415.73	3,585.68
Equity Value (M)	3,853.21	4,035.13	4,224.05
Shares Outstanding (M)	519.24	519.24	519.24
Fair Value	$7.42	$7.77	$8.14
Upside / Downside	-75.57%	-74.42%	-73.22%

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Voestalpine AG (VAS.DE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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