DDM Analysis: UPGS.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.02 - $56.05	$19.10
Multi-Stage	$5.76 - $6.30	$6.03
Blended Fair Value	$12.57
Current Price	$1.25
Upside	905.21%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	11.97%	0.00%	0.07	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	29.50%	9.55%	91.11%	-4.98%	-31.68%	-5.98%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.65%	4.96%	2.46%	3.39%	3.41%	10.29%	2.13%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	24.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)	18.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4.99	3.12	1.87
Cash Retained (M)	18.70	18.70	18.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4.99	-3.12	-1.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.71	15.58	16.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	88.55	88.55	88.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.19
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.23	0.25	0.26
WACC / Discount Rate	7.88%	7.88%	7.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$10.02	$19.10	$56.05
Upside / Downside	701.24%	1,428.04%	4,384.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	24.96	26.58	28.31	30.15	32.11	34.19	35.22
Payout Ratio	25.06%	38.05%	51.04%	64.03%	77.01%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6.26	10.11	14.45	19.30	24.73	30.77	32.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.88%	7.88%	7.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	9.29	9.38	9.46
Year 2 PV (M)	12.18	12.41	12.65
Year 3 PV (M)	14.95	15.37	15.81
Year 4 PV (M)	17.58	18.26	18.95
Year 5 PV (M)	20.09	21.06	22.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	436.35	457.42	479.31
Equity Value (M)	510.44	533.91	558.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	88.55	88.55	88.55
Fair Value	$5.76	$6.03	$6.30
Upside / Downside	361.17%	382.38%	404.37%

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UP Global Sourcing Holdings plc (UPGS.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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