DDM Analysis: TXRH

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$168.91 - $511.86	$268.57
Multi-Stage	$113.57 - $124.00	$118.69
Blended Fair Value	$193.63
Current Price	$166.15
Upside	16.54%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.73%	17.92%	2.44	2.21	1.86	1.25	0.37	1.53	1.03	0.87	0.78	0.69
YoY Growth	-	-	10.65%	18.56%	48.39%	234.78%	-75.59%	49.33%	17.88%	11.72%	12.73%	47.37%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.45%	1.45%	1.75%	1.47%	0.39%	3.72%	1.68%	1.53%	1.77%	1.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	436.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	176.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)	260.73

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	87.35	54.59	32.76
Cash Retained (M)	260.73	260.73	260.73
(-) Cash Required (M)	-87.35	-54.59	-32.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)	173.38	206.13	227.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	66.70	66.70	66.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.60	3.09	3.42
LTM Dividend per Share	2.64	2.64	2.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.60	3.09	3.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.24	5.73	6.06
WACC / Discount Rate	8.77%	8.77%	8.77%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$168.91	$268.57	$511.86
Upside / Downside	1.66%	61.64%	208.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	436.75	465.14	495.38	527.57	561.87	598.39	616.34
Payout Ratio	40.30%	50.24%	60.18%	70.12%	80.06%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	176.03	233.70	298.13	369.94	449.83	538.55	570.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.77%	8.77%	8.77%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	212.83	214.85	216.87
Year 2 PV (M)	247.27	251.98	256.73
Year 3 PV (M)	279.44	287.46	295.64
Year 4 PV (M)	309.45	321.35	333.59
Year 5 PV (M)	337.40	353.70	370.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,188.01	6,486.89	6,797.22
Equity Value (M)	7,574.41	7,916.24	8,270.67
Shares Outstanding (M)	66.70	66.70	66.70
Fair Value	$113.57	$118.69	$124.00
Upside / Downside	-31.65%	-28.56%	-25.37%

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Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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