Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Thule Group AB (publ) (THULE.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$428.66 - $1,939.71$987.74
Multi-Stage$272.29 - $297.57$284.70
Blended Fair Value$636.22
Current Price$230.60
Upside175.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.79%0.00%9.349.0012.6515.090.006.735.7610.362.351.86
YoY Growth--3.83%-28.84%-16.16%0.00%-100.00%16.80%-44.38%339.92%26.50%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.24%2.86%4.97%4.02%0.00%3.89%2.78%5.74%1.57%1.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,055.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)950.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)105.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)211.00131.8879.13
Cash Retained (M)105.00105.00105.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-211.00-131.88-79.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-106.00-26.8825.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)107.45107.45107.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.99-0.250.24
LTM Dividend per Share8.848.848.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.99-0.250.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.858.599.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate4.79%5.79%6.79%
Fair Value$428.66$987.74$1,939.71
Upside / Downside85.89%328.33%741.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,055.001,116.051,180.641,248.971,321.251,397.711,439.64
Payout Ratio90.05%90.04%90.03%90.02%90.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)950.001,004.871,062.911,124.311,189.251,257.941,331.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate4.79%5.79%6.79%
Year 1 PV (M)932.81941.71950.61
Year 2 PV (M)915.93933.49951.22
Year 3 PV (M)899.35925.34951.83
Year 4 PV (M)883.07917.27952.45
Year 5 PV (M)867.09909.26953.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,759.6625,963.8527,214.45
Equity Value (M)29,257.9130,590.9331,973.62
Shares Outstanding (M)107.45107.45107.45
Fair Value$272.29$284.70$297.57
Upside / Downside18.08%23.46%29.04%

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