Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Port of Tauranga Limited (POT.NZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.22 - $43.84$19.04
Multi-Stage$10.83 - $11.84$11.32
Blended Fair Value$15.18
Current Price$6.85
Upside121.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.02%4.40%0.160.150.150.140.120.180.180.170.160.11
YoY Growth--6.07%-1.34%7.15%12.91%-32.24%1.67%6.45%5.62%50.94%3.92%
Dividend Yield--2.29%3.07%2.40%2.25%1.76%2.37%2.86%3.31%3.59%2.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)264.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.8433.0319.82
Cash Retained (M)15.9215.9215.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.84-33.03-19.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-36.93-17.11-3.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)681.68681.68681.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$11.22$19.04$43.84
Upside / Downside63.82%177.96%540.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)264.22276.49289.33302.76316.82331.53341.48
Payout Ratio93.98%93.18%92.39%91.59%90.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.30257.64267.30277.30287.66298.38315.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)239.58241.89244.21
Year 2 PV (M)231.15235.63240.16
Year 3 PV (M)223.00229.52236.16
Year 4 PV (M)215.12223.54232.21
Year 5 PV (M)207.50217.71228.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,262.976,571.006,891.03
Equity Value (M)7,379.337,719.298,072.07
Shares Outstanding (M)681.68681.68681.68
Fair Value$10.83$11.32$11.84
Upside / Downside58.03%65.31%72.87%

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