Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT PINAGO UTAMA Tbk (PNGO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,485.86 - $10,120.99$7,393.67
Multi-Stage$9,292.29 - $10,217.38$9,745.93
Blended Fair Value$8,569.80
Current Price$2,420.00
Upside254.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS5.63%0.00%92.19130.00120.00102.0051.2070.1244.8064.000.000.00
YoY Growth---29.08%8.33%17.65%99.22%-26.98%56.51%-30.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.69%8.97%9.09%6.87%4.95%22.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294,674.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62,700.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)231,974.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58,934.8436,834.2822,100.57
Cash Retained (M)231,974.22231,974.22231,974.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-58,934.84-36,834.28-22,100.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)173,039.38195,139.94209,873.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)781.25781.25781.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share221.49249.78268.64
LTM Dividend per Share80.2680.2680.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share221.49249.78268.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend301.75330.04348.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Fair Value$5,485.86$7,393.67$10,120.99
Upside / Downside126.69%205.52%318.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294,674.22299,879.52305,176.76310,567.58316,053.62321,636.58331,285.67
Payout Ratio21.28%35.02%48.77%62.51%76.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62,700.00105,024.37148,824.46194,139.19241,008.42289,472.92306,439.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Year 1 PV (M)97,820.7898,791.5599,762.32
Year 2 PV (M)129,108.97131,684.23134,284.91
Year 3 PV (M)156,868.74161,585.51166,395.89
Year 4 PV (M)181,382.96188,690.98196,217.64
Year 5 PV (M)202,914.59213,184.98223,867.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,491,504.736,820,068.057,161,802.72
Equity Value (M)7,259,600.777,614,005.297,982,330.57
Shares Outstanding (M)781.25781.25781.25
Fair Value$9,292.29$9,745.93$10,217.38
Upside / Downside283.98%302.72%322.21%

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