DDM Analysis: PKN.WA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$620.13 - $1,838.52	$1,722.97
Multi-Stage	$252.88 - $276.64	$264.54
Blended Fair Value	$993.75
Current Price	$82.10
Upside	1,110.42%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	26.26%	22.82%	4.15	5.50	1.29	1.29	0.37	1.29	1.11	1.11	0.74	0.61
YoY Growth	-	-	-24.53%	326.52%	0.00%	249.77%	-71.50%	17.07%	0.00%	50.06%	21.10%	14.42%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.10%	8.31%	2.21%	1.70%	0.58%	2.32%	1.11%	1.31%	0.74%	0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10,732.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,819.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5,913.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,146.40	1,341.50	804.90
Cash Retained (M)	5,913.00	5,913.00	5,913.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,146.40	-1,341.50	-804.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,766.60	4,571.50	5,108.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,160.89	1,160.89	1,160.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.24	3.94	4.40
LTM Dividend per Share	4.15	4.15	4.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.24	3.94	4.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	7.40	8.09	8.55
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$620.13	$1,722.97	$1,838.52
Upside / Downside	655.33%	1,998.62%	2,139.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10,732.00	11,429.58	12,172.50	12,963.72	13,806.36	14,703.77	15,144.88
Payout Ratio	44.90%	53.92%	62.94%	71.96%	80.98%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,819.00	6,163.11	7,661.60	9,328.85	11,180.47	13,233.39	14,009.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,718.76	5,772.96	5,827.17
Year 2 PV (M)	6,596.64	6,722.29	6,849.12
Year 3 PV (M)	7,453.03	7,666.98	7,884.99
Year 4 PV (M)	8,288.32	8,607.07	8,934.92
Year 5 PV (M)	9,102.89	9,542.56	9,999.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)	256,410.70	268,795.43	281,654.16
Equity Value (M)	293,570.34	307,107.30	321,149.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,160.89	1,160.89	1,160.89
Fair Value	$252.88	$264.54	$276.64
Upside / Downside	208.02%	222.22%	236.96%

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Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna (PKN.WA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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