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Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.85 - $11.77$9.70
Multi-Stage$14.80 - $16.31$15.54
Blended Fair Value$12.62
Current Price$14.70
Upside-14.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.302.691.61
Cash Retained (M)21.2221.2221.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.30-2.69-1.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.9218.5319.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.9422.9422.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.810.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.810.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.37%7.37%7.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.85$9.70$11.77
Upside / Downside-46.63%-33.99%-19.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21.5021.2921.0720.8620.6520.4521.06
Payout Ratio1.31%19.05%36.78%54.52%72.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.284.057.7511.3714.9218.4019.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.37%7.37%7.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.743.783.81
Year 2 PV (M)6.596.726.86
Year 3 PV (M)8.919.199.47
Year 4 PV (M)10.7811.2311.69
Year 5 PV (M)12.2612.9013.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)297.29312.78328.89
Equity Value (M)339.58356.60374.30
Shares Outstanding (M)22.9422.9422.94
Fair Value$14.80$15.54$16.31
Upside / Downside0.69%5.74%10.99%

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