DDM Analysis: ORNAV.HE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$45.27 - $106.03	$66.52
Multi-Stage	$61.34 - $67.23	$64.23
Blended Fair Value	$65.38
Current Price	$65.15
Upside	0.35%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.54%	2.61%	1.62	1.60	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.45	1.55	1.31	1.30
YoY Growth	-	-	1.38%	6.49%	0.00%	0.05%	-0.05%	3.58%	-6.47%	18.74%	0.16%	4.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.96%	4.76%	3.65%	3.65%	4.40%	4.03%	4.26%	6.24%	2.67%	4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	313.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	229.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	83.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	62.64	39.15	23.49
Cash Retained (M)	83.60	83.60	83.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-62.64	-39.15	-23.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)	20.96	44.45	60.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	140.56	140.56	140.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.32	0.43
LTM Dividend per Share	1.63	1.63	1.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.32	0.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.78	1.95	2.06
WACC / Discount Rate	6.30%	6.30%	6.30%
Growth Rate	2.27%	3.27%	4.27%
Fair Value	$45.27	$66.52	$106.03
Upside / Downside	-30.51%	2.10%	62.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	313.20	323.44	334.02	344.94	356.22	367.87	378.91
Payout Ratio	73.31%	76.65%	79.98%	83.32%	86.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	229.60	247.91	267.16	287.42	308.71	331.09	350.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.30%	6.30%	6.30%
Growth Rate	2.27%	3.27%	4.27%
Year 1 PV (M)	230.96	233.22	235.48
Year 2 PV (M)	231.89	236.45	241.05
Year 3 PV (M)	232.42	239.30	246.32
Year 4 PV (M)	232.57	241.80	251.31
Year 5 PV (M)	232.38	243.97	256.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,461.36	7,833.35	8,220.03
Equity Value (M)	8,621.59	9,028.10	9,450.20
Shares Outstanding (M)	140.56	140.56	140.56
Fair Value	$61.34	$64.23	$67.23
Upside / Downside	-5.85%	-1.41%	3.20%

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Orion Oyj (ORNAV.HE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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