DDM Analysis: NTGY.MC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$14.80 - $21.45	$18.03
Multi-Stage	$40.91 - $45.11	$42.97
Blended Fair Value	$30.50
Current Price	$27.00
Upside	12.96%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.76%	-1.57%	1.00	1.52	1.56	1.78	1.88	1.98	1.46	1.34	1.59	1.12
YoY Growth	-	-	-33.93%	-3.07%	-12.13%	-5.27%	-5.21%	35.79%	9.03%	-15.86%	42.62%	-4.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.89%	7.47%	5.64%	6.55%	8.99%	12.30%	5.84%	6.90%	7.75%	6.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,152.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)	852.29

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	401.00	250.63	150.38
Cash Retained (M)	852.29	852.29	852.29
(-) Cash Required (M)	-401.00	-250.63	-150.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	451.29	601.67	701.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	959.03	959.03	959.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.47	0.63	0.73
LTM Dividend per Share	1.20	1.20	1.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.47	0.63	0.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.67	1.83	1.93
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-4.47%	-3.47%	-2.47%
Fair Value	$14.80	$18.03	$21.45
Upside / Downside	-45.17%	-33.21%	-20.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,005.00	1,935.43	1,868.26	1,803.43	1,740.85	1,680.45	1,730.86
Payout Ratio	57.49%	63.99%	70.50%	77.00%	83.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,152.71	1,238.54	1,317.03	1,388.59	1,453.58	1,512.40	1,601.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-4.47%	-3.47%	-2.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,152.83	1,164.90	1,176.97
Year 2 PV (M)	1,141.05	1,165.06	1,189.33
Year 3 PV (M)	1,119.78	1,155.32	1,191.59
Year 4 PV (M)	1,091.07	1,137.48	1,185.35
Year 5 PV (M)	1,056.66	1,113.13	1,172.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)	33,670.02	35,469.58	37,345.27
Equity Value (M)	39,231.41	41,205.47	43,260.51
Shares Outstanding (M)	959.03	959.03	959.03
Fair Value	$40.91	$42.97	$45.11
Upside / Downside	51.51%	59.13%	67.07%

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Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. (NTGY.MC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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