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Definitive Analysis

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Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$444.62 - $962.32$901.84
Multi-Stage$146.20 - $159.99$152.97
Blended Fair Value$527.40
Current Price$57.54
Upside816.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.62%9.95%2.535.807.151.421.331.341.831.551.191.20
YoY Growth---56.40%-18.89%402.45%7.38%-0.79%-26.86%18.02%29.93%-0.34%21.98%
Dividend Yield--4.19%9.25%9.19%1.65%2.42%5.91%5.07%3.31%2.39%3.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,593.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,445.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,148.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,918.601,199.13719.48
Cash Retained (M)5,148.005,148.005,148.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,918.60-1,199.13-719.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,229.403,948.884,428.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,982.501,982.501,982.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.631.992.23
LTM Dividend per Share2.242.242.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.631.992.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.874.234.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$444.62$901.84$962.32
Upside / Downside672.72%1,467.32%1,572.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,593.0010,216.5510,880.6211,587.8612,341.0713,143.2413,537.54
Payout Ratio46.34%55.07%63.80%72.53%81.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,445.005,626.126,942.008,405.1810,029.2411,828.9212,522.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,237.145,286.785,336.43
Year 2 PV (M)6,015.286,129.866,245.51
Year 3 PV (M)6,779.606,974.217,172.52
Year 4 PV (M)7,530.277,819.868,117.73
Year 5 PV (M)8,267.488,666.809,081.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)256,018.26268,384.04281,223.09
Equity Value (M)289,848.03303,261.56317,176.68
Shares Outstanding (M)1,982.501,982.501,982.50
Fair Value$146.20$152.97$159.99
Upside / Downside154.09%165.85%178.05%

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