Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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National Cement Company (Public Shareholding Co.) (NCC.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.92 - $5.79$4.81
Multi-Stage$10.17 - $11.22$10.68
Blended Fair Value$7.75
Current Price$4.56
Upside69.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.35%-4.73%0.150.000.100.000.100.100.180.260.250.25
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.40%-43.09%-31.12%2.47%0.00%2.65%
Dividend Yield--3.50%0.00%4.15%0.00%4.41%4.19%8.53%7.50%8.03%8.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)110.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.3922.7513.65
Cash Retained (M)110.21110.21110.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.39-22.75-13.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.8187.4696.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)360.24360.24360.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-3.63%-2.63%-1.63%
Fair Value$3.92$4.81$5.79
Upside / Downside-14.11%5.52%26.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.97177.18172.53167.99163.58159.28164.06
Payout Ratio39.44%49.55%59.66%69.77%79.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71.7687.79102.93117.22130.68143.35151.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-3.63%-2.63%-1.63%
Year 1 PV (M)81.7382.5883.43
Year 2 PV (M)89.2191.0792.95
Year 3 PV (M)94.5797.54100.58
Year 4 PV (M)98.15102.29106.55
Year 5 PV (M)100.23105.54111.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,199.863,369.363,545.97
Equity Value (M)3,663.743,848.374,040.54
Shares Outstanding (M)360.24360.24360.24
Fair Value$10.17$10.68$11.22
Upside / Downside123.04%134.27%145.97%

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