DDM Analysis: MSZ.WA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.03 - $29.28	$17.90
Multi-Stage	$8.26 - $9.04	$8.64
Blended Fair Value	$13.27
Current Price	$6.35
Upside	108.99%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	26.74%	66.77%	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.12
YoY Growth	-	-	45.31%	108.18%	52.78%	62.71%	-56.51%	228.23%	-38.61%	-22.61%	-96.80%	101,812.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.35%	0.29%	0.24%	0.24%	0.18%	1.14%	0.17%	0.25%	0.16%	3.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	37.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)	35.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.59	4.74	2.85
Cash Retained (M)	35.70	35.70	35.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.59	-4.74	-2.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	28.11	30.96	32.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	68.66	68.66	68.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.41	0.45	0.48
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.41	0.45	0.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.44	0.48	0.51
WACC / Discount Rate	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$12.03	$17.90	$29.28
Upside / Downside	89.45%	181.89%	361.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	37.94	40.40	43.03	45.82	48.80	51.98	53.53
Payout Ratio	5.90%	22.72%	39.54%	56.36%	73.18%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.24	9.18	17.01	25.83	35.71	46.78	49.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	8.31	8.39	8.47
Year 2 PV (M)	13.96	14.22	14.49
Year 3 PV (M)	19.19	19.74	20.30
Year 4 PV (M)	24.03	24.95	25.90
Year 5 PV (M)	28.51	29.88	31.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)	473.24	496.10	519.83
Equity Value (M)	567.23	593.29	620.31
Shares Outstanding (M)	68.66	68.66	68.66
Fair Value	$8.26	$8.64	$9.04
Upside / Downside	30.11%	36.09%	42.29%

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Mostostal Zabrze S.A. (MSZ.WA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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