Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $70.10 - $185.96 | $107.19 |
| Multi-Stage | $51.43 - $56.00 | $53.67 |
| Blended Fair Value | $80.43 | |
| Current Price | $71.32 | |
| Upside | 12.78% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -56.91% | -39.30% | 0.04 | 2.32 | 2.23 | 6.11 | 3.60 | 2.66 | 4.00 | 3.26 | 1.97 | 1.03 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -98.29% | 4.30% | -63.61% | 69.65% | 35.25% | -33.35% | 22.74% | 65.28% | 91.21% | -82.32% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.07% | 4.13% | 5.79% | 13.02% | 6.57% | 9.48% | 9.26% | 6.41% | 5.12% | 3.65% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 234.57 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 201.48 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 33.09 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 46.91 | 29.32 | 17.59 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 33.09 | 33.09 | 33.09 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -46.91 | -29.32 | -17.59 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -13.82 | 3.77 | 15.50 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 78.49 | 78.49 | 78.49 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.18 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.57 | 2.57 | 2.57 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.18 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.39 | 2.61 | 2.76 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $70.10 | $107.19 | $185.96 |
| Upside / Downside | -1.71% | 50.30% | 160.74% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 234.57 | 249.82 | 266.06 | 283.35 | 301.77 | 321.38 | 331.02 |
| Payout Ratio | 85.89% | 86.71% | 87.54% | 88.36% | 89.18% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 201.48 | 216.63 | 232.89 | 250.36 | 269.11 | 289.24 | 306.20 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 196.70 | 198.56 | 200.43 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 192.01 | 195.67 | 199.36 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 187.42 | 192.80 | 198.29 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 182.93 | 189.96 | 197.20 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 178.52 | 187.15 | 196.10 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 3,099.16 | 3,248.85 | 3,404.27 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,036.74 | 4,213.00 | 4,395.64 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 78.49 | 78.49 | 78.49 |
| Fair Value | $51.43 | $53.67 | $56.00 |
| Upside / Downside | -27.89% | -24.74% | -21.48% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDC | M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. | 0.86% | $0.54 | 55.94% |
| AXP | American Express Company | 0.85% | $3.17 | 20.85% |
| FOXA | Fox Corporation | 0.85% | $0.62 | 13.96% |
| LMST | Limestone Bancorp, Inc. | 0.85% | $0.20 | 8.06% |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | 0.85% | $2.41 | 16.19% |
| AZZ | AZZ Inc. | 0.84% | $0.92 | 8.89% |
| HIBB | Hibbett, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.74 | 9.00% |
| MAR | Marriott International, Inc. | 0.84% | $2.62 | 27.38% |
| MORN | Morningstar, Inc. | 0.84% | $1.77 | 20.03% |
| SGH | SMART Global Holdings, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.14 | 30.96% |
| URI | United Rentals, Inc. | 0.84% | $7.13 | 18.10% |
| 0HYJ.L | Cintas Corporation | 0.83% | $1.54 | 34.15% |
| EFX | Equifax Inc. | 0.83% | $1.78 | 33.46% |
| GM | General Motors Company | 0.82% | $0.66 | 21.22% |
| KVSA | Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co. | 0.81% | $0.09 | 9.61% |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | 0.81% | $0.91 | 31.92% |
| BMI | Badger Meter, Inc. | 0.80% | $1.41 | 30.10% |
| FRD | Friedman Industries, Incorporated | 0.80% | $0.16 | 9.82% |
| ITT | ITT Inc. | 0.80% | $1.40 | 22.66% |
| MLI | Mueller Industries, Inc. | 0.80% | $0.94 | 13.89% |
| SSSSL | SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 | 0.80% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| RGLD | Royal Gold, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.75 | 24.00% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.74 | 26.41% |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corporation | 0.78% | $1.94 | 87.57% |
| EE | Excelerate Energy, Inc. | 0.78% | $0.22 | 9.21% |
| 0K36.L | Moody's Corporation | 0.77% | $3.82 | 30.70% |
| HCI | HCI Group, Inc. | 0.77% | $1.42 | 9.00% |
| PH | Parker-Hannifin Corporation | 0.77% | $6.85 | 24.15% |
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 0.77% | $0.39 | 44.96% |
| 0HQN.L | Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 0.76% | $1.90 | 20.31% |
| ASIC | Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC | 0.76% | $0.15 | 12.77% |
| GL | Globe Life Inc. | 0.75% | $1.03 | 7.35% |
| 0KYY.L | S&P Global Inc. | 0.74% | $3.81 | 28.09% |
| PHM | PulteGroup, Inc. | 0.74% | $0.89 | 6.67% |
| ROP | Roper Technologies, Inc. | 0.74% | $3.20 | 22.09% |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | 0.74% | $0.35 | 30.63% |
| JOE | The St. Joe Company | 0.73% | $0.43 | 24.05% |
| TOL | Toll Brothers, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.99 | 7.16% |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.25 | 26.25% |
| 0HCB.L | Alcoa Corporation | 0.72% | $0.40 | 9.08% |
| A | Agilent Technologies, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.99 | 21.64% |
| FCFS | FirstCash Holdings, Inc | 0.72% | $1.13 | 16.40% |
| TRAK | ReposiTrak, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.09 | 22.94% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | 0.71% | $37.78 | 24.39% |
| PGC | Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation | 0.71% | $0.20 | 10.22% |
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.37 | 6.63% |
| BRO | Brown & Brown, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.54 | 18.02% |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | 0.70% | $4.39 | 29.97% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | 0.70% | $3.31 | 23.52% |
| NCR | NCR Corporation | 0.70% | $0.11 | 1.70% |