Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$127.78 - $356.65$198.42
Multi-Stage$86.85 - $94.87$90.79
Blended Fair Value$144.60
Current Price$123.51
Upside17.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS71.94%30.25%2.301.501.430.771.440.150.290.180.510.12
YoY Growth--53.33%4.90%85.71%-46.25%836.10%-46.67%60.58%-65.03%339.35%-28.96%
Dividend Yield--1.63%0.87%4.38%3.93%5.78%0.62%1.16%0.72%2.06%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68,352.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20,909.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)47,442.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,670.408,544.005,126.40
Cash Retained (M)47,442.4047,442.4047,442.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,670.40-8,544.00-5,126.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)33,772.0038,898.4042,316.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,044.7713,044.7713,044.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.592.983.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.601.601.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.592.983.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.194.584.85
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$127.78$198.42$356.65
Upside / Downside3.46%60.65%188.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68,352.0072,794.8877,526.5582,565.7787,932.5593,648.1696,457.61
Payout Ratio30.59%42.47%54.35%66.24%78.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20,909.6030,918.0642,139.2754,688.6168,691.3384,283.3589,223.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)28,108.9328,375.3628,641.80
Year 2 PV (M)34,829.8235,493.2336,162.90
Year 3 PV (M)41,095.4042,275.1043,477.16
Year 4 PV (M)46,927.8148,732.5250,588.79
Year 5 PV (M)52,348.2554,876.6957,501.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)929,662.12974,565.151,021,186.72
Equity Value (M)1,132,972.321,184,318.051,237,559.27
Shares Outstanding (M)13,044.7713,044.7713,044.77
Fair Value$86.85$90.79$94.87
Upside / Downside-29.68%-26.49%-23.19%

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