Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$600.87 - $1,396.53$880.52
Multi-Stage$436.28 - $477.21$456.37
Blended Fair Value$668.44
Current Price$437.51
Upside52.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.42%3.96%1.941.941.821.840.851.561.611.571.541.53
YoY Growth--0.00%6.33%-0.84%117.27%-45.81%-2.74%1.98%2.40%0.23%16.64%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.67%0.81%1.10%0.54%3.53%2.42%2.41%2.08%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)350.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.2647.0428.22
Cash Retained (M)350.60350.60350.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.26-47.04-28.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)275.34303.56322.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.9912.9912.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share21.1923.3624.81
LTM Dividend per Share1.981.981.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share21.1923.3624.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend23.1725.3426.79
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.21%6.21%7.21%
Fair Value$600.87$880.52$1,396.53
Upside / Downside37.34%101.26%219.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376.30399.66424.48450.83478.83508.56523.81
Payout Ratio6.83%23.46%40.10%56.73%73.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.7093.78170.21255.77351.30457.70484.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.21%6.21%7.21%
Year 1 PV (M)85.0285.8286.63
Year 2 PV (M)139.89142.56145.26
Year 3 PV (M)190.58196.06201.65
Year 4 PV (M)237.31246.46255.87
Year 5 PV (M)280.30293.88307.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,736.204,965.605,203.81
Equity Value (M)5,669.295,930.396,201.21
Shares Outstanding (M)12.9912.9912.99
Fair Value$436.28$456.37$477.21
Upside / Downside-0.28%4.31%9.07%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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