Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Great Portland Estates Plc (GPE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - OfficeSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.51 - $14.20$11.74
Multi-Stage$16.16 - $17.77$16.95
Blended Fair Value$14.34
Current Price$2.98
Upside381.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.92%0.55%0.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.450.100.10
YoY Growth---2.75%2.51%-2.45%3.15%-4.80%1.83%-77.24%354.75%3.27%1.66%
Dividend Yield--3.35%3.21%2.38%1.73%1.76%1.84%1.66%8.15%1.83%1.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)366.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)301.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73.2545.7827.47
Cash Retained (M)301.77301.77301.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-73.25-45.78-27.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)228.51255.98274.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)318.99318.99318.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.720.800.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.720.800.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-1.45%-0.45%0.55%
Fair Value$9.51$11.74$14.20
Upside / Downside219.02%293.83%376.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)366.27364.62362.98361.35359.73358.11368.86
Payout Ratio17.61%32.09%46.57%61.04%75.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.50117.00169.03220.58271.68322.30341.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-1.45%-0.45%0.55%
Year 1 PV (M)107.17108.26109.35
Year 2 PV (M)141.82144.72147.64
Year 3 PV (M)169.54174.75180.07
Year 4 PV (M)191.27199.15207.27
Year 5 PV (M)207.85218.61229.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,337.254,561.814,795.58
Equity Value (M)5,154.915,407.315,669.73
Shares Outstanding (M)318.99318.99318.99
Fair Value$16.16$16.95$17.77
Upside / Downside442.28%468.84%496.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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