Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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General Dynamics Corporation (GD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$242.33 - $462.80$330.97
Multi-Stage$290.42 - $318.21$304.06
Blended Fair Value$317.51
Current Price$332.17
Upside-4.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.83%6.40%5.605.235.024.824.544.223.943.613.343.20
YoY Growth--7.07%4.31%4.11%6.05%7.64%7.16%9.03%8.23%4.35%6.20%
Dividend Yield--2.06%1.80%2.16%2.01%2.45%3.16%2.29%1.65%1.78%2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,215.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,577.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,638.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)843.00526.88316.13
Cash Retained (M)2,638.002,638.002,638.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-843.00-526.88-316.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,795.002,111.132,321.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)272.85272.85272.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.587.748.51
LTM Dividend per Share5.785.785.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.587.748.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.3613.5214.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate2.46%3.46%4.46%
Fair Value$242.33$330.97$462.80
Upside / Downside-27.05%-0.36%39.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,215.004,360.724,511.474,667.444,828.804,995.745,145.61
Payout Ratio37.41%47.93%58.45%68.97%79.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,577.002,090.142,636.883,218.933,838.074,496.164,759.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate2.46%3.46%4.46%
Year 1 PV (M)1,922.271,941.031,959.79
Year 2 PV (M)2,230.312,274.062,318.23
Year 3 PV (M)2,503.932,577.972,653.45
Year 4 PV (M)2,745.752,854.532,966.50
Year 5 PV (M)2,958.203,105.413,258.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,880.3170,208.4673,667.81
Equity Value (M)79,240.7782,961.4586,824.20
Shares Outstanding (M)272.85272.85272.85
Fair Value$290.42$304.06$318.21
Upside / Downside-12.57%-8.46%-4.20%

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