DDM Analysis: GAW.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$242.47 - $629.60	$368.31
Multi-Stage	$179.76 - $195.69	$187.58
Blended Fair Value	$277.95
Current Price	$153.30
Upside	81.31%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	29.37%	26.30%	5.19	4.19	4.14	2.83	1.83	1.43	1.52	1.17	0.72	0.39
YoY Growth	-	-	23.93%	1.32%	45.99%	54.55%	27.91%	-5.78%	29.71%	62.60%	85.41%	-22.67%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.39%	4.14%	4.37%	3.86%	1.51%	1.84%	3.41%	4.04%	7.72%	7.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	347.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	309.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	37.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	69.44	43.40	26.04
Cash Retained (M)	37.50	37.50	37.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-69.44	-43.40	-26.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-31.94	-5.90	11.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	33.01	33.01	33.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.97	-0.18	0.35
LTM Dividend per Share	9.38	9.38	9.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.97	-0.18	0.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	8.41	9.20	9.73
WACC / Discount Rate	9.16%	9.16%	9.16%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$242.47	$368.31	$629.60
Upside / Downside	58.16%	140.25%	310.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	347.20	369.77	393.80	419.40	446.66	475.69	489.96
Payout Ratio	89.20%	89.36%	89.52%	89.68%	89.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	309.70	330.42	352.53	376.12	401.28	428.12	453.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.16%	9.16%	9.16%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	299.85	302.69	305.53
Year 2 PV (M)	290.31	295.84	301.42
Year 3 PV (M)	281.08	289.15	297.37
Year 4 PV (M)	272.14	282.60	293.37
Year 5 PV (M)	263.48	276.20	289.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,527.07	4,745.73	4,972.76
Equity Value (M)	5,933.93	6,192.22	6,459.87
Shares Outstanding (M)	33.01	33.01	33.01
Fair Value	$179.76	$187.58	$195.69
Upside / Downside	17.26%	22.36%	27.65%

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Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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